Why does the market for the textile industry have the s […]
Why does the market for the textile industry have the saying of "Golden September and Silver 10"? The first is because of industry rules. Entering September, equivalent to entering the fourth quarter of the year, apparel companies face domestic double 11, foreign trade Christmas season, annual sales targets, etc., will promote sales. Secondly due to weather factors. Into the nine autumn cool, suitable for the sales of new season clothing, and like the hot season in July and August, even if the hot market, selling hot cloth is also a torture. Over time, it has become a habit of selling in the market.
But after careful observation over the past few years, you will find that under the shackles of many factors in the market, "Golden September and Silver 10" has begun to be forced to fail.
Let us first look at the macroeconomic environment.
At present, the new tariffs imposed by the United States on 200 billion U.S. dollars of Chinese imports have reached 10%, and may rise to 25% on January 1, and the Chinese economy is beginning to feel the pressure. As companies prepare to cope with the impact of US tariffs, China's manufacturing growth is weakening.
In order to reduce the impact of trade wars on China, the State Council held a State Council executive meeting on September 26 to determine measures to promote the landing of major foreign investment projects, reduce import tariffs on certain commodities, and accelerate the promotion of customs clearance. The meeting decided that from November 1 this year, the import duty rate of goods such as industrial products such as tax items will be reduced, and the average tax rate for textiles, building materials and other commodities will fall from 11.5% to 8.4%.
However, the trade war will continue. A recent analysis released by Goldman Sachs recently pointed out that the possibility of the United States imposing tariffs on all imported goods from China has increased to 60%.
Let’s look at the micro polyester market.
Because of the futures market, PTA is the most serious in buying and not buying. As long as the price of PTA rises, and then there are a few good news, hot money will flood into this market, and the price of PTA will continue to push up. Driven by futures, the spot price will also soar.
Beginning in mid-July this year, because the price of upstream PX continued to rise, PTA also ushered in a wave of rising prices. The whole market continued until the end of August. The spot price of PTA rose from 6,000 yuan to more than 9,000 yuan, and futures were soaring. The largest increase in the 1809 futures rose more than 60%.
However, the price of PX is still stable at the beginning of September. As the market is bearish, PTA futures will start to turn sharply. In mid-September, the PTA spot price also began to dive under the influence of futures, and plunged 1,500 yuan in 3 days.
PTA, as a raw material for polyester filaments, has a great impact on polyester plants. When the PTA just rose, although the market is still in the off-season, the polyester factory has a very good day. The high level of profits plus the rising tide of purchases, chemical fiber companies can be said to earn a lot of money.
However, after the time came to August, the PTA rose more than expected, and the downstream price of raw materials was unacceptable. The textile clusters around the country issued a joint production stoppage proposal, pointing to the chemical fiber leader.
After entering September, PTA futures began to fall, and the downstream price of polyester filaments was bearish, and the production and sales of polyester filaments began to deteriorate. Then the entire polyester filament market is caught in a vicious circle where the lower the price, the worse the production and sales, and the lower the production and sales, the lower the price.
September is often the best time for the market in a year. Compared with the same period of last year, the inventory of weaving companies is not so high, but this year is very abnormal. In September and October, the inventory of weaving enterprises is higher than that in August. . This shows that the market is not as expected now.
Compared to PTA and polyester yarn factories, downstream woven fabric companies are smaller and more dispersed, and have lower tolerance to raw material changes.
The profit of traditional weaving factories is often around 5%, but polyester filaments have risen more than 40% in a month. Even if the profits of conventional products in the first half of this year are better, they can't stand the cost.
Some companies that can't bear it have started to stop production and stop production, and traders can't make a list. If the price is high, you can't make money, but the price is low, and the high raw material price makes the manufacturers discouraged.
September and October are traditional textile seasons. In September and October last year, dyeing factories broke out, and large and small orders were emerging. Manufacturers could not wait to expand production capacity several times. Basically, how many cloths can be sold, but also in short supply; In the month, raw materials have been falling, and everyone is watching, when the price can come down.
After experiencing the surge in the upstream chemical fiber raw materials market, it is facing a fear of falling, and is facing the suppression of the terminal textile and apparel export market by the Sino-US trade war. Under the mentality of buying up and not buying down, the textile market in September and October this year is not warm and has not been able to afford the title of "high season".
On the whole, the trend of both market price transactions in the past September has not only made futures traders suffer, but also made traders become cautious in purchasing goods. Everyone generally feels that “money is hard to earn”. Through the above analysis, Xiao Bian believes that the environmental protection policy is loose, the weaving output will be improved, and the negative factors will lead to the continued weak operation in the current position, but by observing the historical inventory data and the changes in the past month, the estimate is 10 Prices will gradually stabilize in the middle and late months, and the whole of October will show a weak and stable pattern.