Textile and Apparel: Under-line consumption is flat on the pressure, textile manufacturing boom

Update:2018-10-13
Summary:

Brand apparel in the third quarter of the offline retai […]

Brand apparel in the third quarter of the offline retail performance was flat, online growth slowed down. 1) The growth rate of offline consumption increased from the previous month. From the retail data of 100 large enterprises, the growth rate of retail sales in August was 0.3%. It is expected to be contributed by Mid-Autumn Festival consumption in September. The growth rate of leading companies is expected to increase again, driving the growth rate of the third quarter to increase. 2) Online clothing sales are under pressure. From January to August of the year, the cumulative annual growth rate of online retail sales of commodity services reached 28.6%. Among them, the online retail sales of wearing goods from January to August increased by 23.4% year-on-year. Since May, the growth rate has dropped from more than 30% at the beginning of the year. To 23-24%, showing a downward trend. 3) Textile exports maintained a warming trend. From January to August of 18, the cumulative export of textiles and garments increased by 3.7% year-on-year; among them, textile exports increased by 9.5% year-on-year, up 7.6pct compared with the same period of last year; garment exports decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, 0.4pct lower than the same period of last year. 4) The upstream cotton price fell. As of October 10, 18, the cotton price of 328 index rose by 2.2% compared with the beginning of the year. This year, domestic cotton production slightly exceeded expectations, and cotton prices fell after entering August.

Volkswagen apparel is expected to benefit from a low base last year. It is expected that brand apparel online growth will be lower than expected, and textile manufacturing will improve. From the sub-industry: 1) The growth rate of the public clothing line is stable. Leading companies have clear operational barriers and stable growth in performance. Last year, the base number was low, and the Mid-Autumn Festival improved ahead of the third quarter. 2) E-commerce consumption has gradually turned into stock competition. The growth of domestic mainstream e-commerce platform traffic slows down, brand apparel online sales are under pressure, consumer demand for cost-effective consumption is expected to accelerate growth; overseas online retail market development momentum is good, optimistic about the peak season. 3) The differentiation of mid-to-high-end brands is obvious. The growth of high-end women's wear brand slowed down, and the high-end sports and leisure brands of the high-quality segmentation track on the card stage performed brilliantly, maintaining the expansion trend of the number of stores and the operating area, and promoting steady growth of performance. 4) Textile manufacturing accelerated growth. We expect cotton supply and demand structure to be tight next year, and long-term bullish cotton prices will release performance flexibility. The depreciation of the exchange rate in the third quarter further boosted the profit margin and accelerated growth. 5) The cosmetics sector has grown strongly. The growth rate of cosmetics retail sales continued to lead the company's zero data. 6) The home textile line has grown steadily. The channel structure optimization led to sales expansion under the line, and the online business is still in the adjustment stage.

We expect the performance of the key enterprises in the textile and apparel industry in the third quarter of 2018 as follows. The focus is on the stable growth, the bottom of the public clothing white horse leading, the high-growth high-quality high-end clothing standard, and the cotton spinning manufacturing sector with improved performance growth ratio:

Companies with a growth rate higher than or equal to 30% mainly include: Antarctic e-commerce (85% growth rate, in line with expectations, benefiting from online price/performance demand, and growth rate increase); Taiping Bird (70% growth rate, in line with expectations, TOC continued Advancement, depreciation accruals significantly reduced year-on-year; cross-border communication (speed growth of 65%, in line with expectations, self-owned website to maintain growth, peak season is expected to accelerate); Kairun shares (40% growth rate, 2B new retail volume, 2C expansion) Category Acceleration); Biyinlefen (45% growth rate, higher than expected, channel bargaining power continues to increase, store expansion drives the same store growth stable); Polaiya (38% growth rate, in line with expectations, offline order brand stores broke out, online Multi-platform power potential is enough).

The growth rate of 0-30% of the company mainly includes: Luolai life (27% growth rate, in line with expectations, online and offline synergy development, LOVO brand independent operation); Song Lisi (27% growth rate, the main brand grows steadily, more Brand synergy); Senma apparel (25% growth rate, store acceleration, children's clothing leading position stable, the main brand continues to pick up); Yujiahui (25% growth rate, in line with expectations, the acquisition of Afu strong alliance, the establishment of the US industry open The platform empowers overseas beauty brands); Huafu Fashion (25% growth rate, in line with expectations, orderly expansion of production capacity, steady expansion of network chain business); Blum Oriental (22% growth rate, exceeding expectations, Vietnam's production capacity continued to release, RMB depreciation brings exchange gains, and performance elasticity is significant); Anzheng Fashion (20% growth rate, self-cultivation brand matrix development is good); Shanghai Jahwa (20% growth rate, new products plus code, joint ventures, multi-channels); Mercury Home Textiles (18% growth rate, in line with expectations, steady growth under the line, continuous adjustment on the line); Jiu Muwang (15% growth rate, in line with expectations, multi-brand layouts have landed, brand matrix construction Completion); Haishu Home (12% growth rate, in line with expectations, terminal retail growth is stable, emerging brands are actively expanding, product quality and cost performance are expected to further increase); seven wolves (10% growth rate, in line with expectations, offline fluctuations in the same store) ); Lutai A (3% growth rate, in line with expectations, overseas production capacity gradually put, orders grow steadily).

Industry perspectives and investment advice: In the third quarter, apparel retail consumption has not yet seen an industry turning point, a focal length segment, and a cotton spinning manufacturing sector with an increase in speed. Recommendations: 1) High-end fashion: Biyin Lefen's high-end casual apparel track is in good demand, and the store expansion is steadily improving. 2) Popular clothing leader: Haishu's offline sales growth is stable. Last year's base was low, and performance growth and dividends are expected to contribute to stable returns. 3) Hengqiang, the leader in textile manufacturing: Blum's overseas production capacity continued to expand, and cotton prices pushed the company's performance elasticity. We recommend focusing on: 1) high-end sports fashion: Biyinlefen; 2) mass consumer leader: Haishu House, Senma clothing; 3) overseas production capacity leading manufacturing leader: Blum Oriental; 4) e-commerce leader: Cross-border and Antarctic e-commerce.